To celebrate Polygon’s 10th anniversary, we’re rolling out a special issue: The Next 10, a consideration of what games and entertainment will become over the next decade from some of our favorite artists and writers. Here, freelance writer Khee Hoon Chan digs into the challenges of predicting what directions the game industry will go.
When speculating about the future of anything, there’s a chance predictions will appear dated in hindsight. Take the concept of retrofuturism; despite its quaint, kitschy charm, its aesthetics feel rather (and sometimes deliberately) antiquated: curved geometric designs, chunky phones, and nuclear-powered zeppelins. That’s because the movement was influenced by ’50s- and ’60s-era design and tech trends, which were then extrapolated into the distant future. This datedness is a pitfall Chris Novak is wary of falling into when discussing the shape of gaming a decade from now — especially if that talk were to stem from current gaming trends.
“If you just look at gaming through [the generations of consoles], and you think about the things that became blockbuster hits or blockbuster breakouts […] if you were to try and predict what the one in the next generation would be based on the current generation, you’re basically always going to be wrong,” says Novak. “That’s the one thing history has shown: Nobody expected motion controls; nobody expected all of these things.”
As the former head of Xbox research and design, Novak has a breadth of industry experiences to draw from, having led the user experience journey across gaming at Microsoft for nearly 20 years, and overseeing projects such as Xbox Game Pass and Xbox Live. He suggests that it’s more realistic to deliberate over the future of player verbs: the act of play, discover, share, create, and more. He also feels that conversations around trending topics such as the metaverse and blockchain gaming are akin to talking about product and technical features, which are simply “not as existential” as discussions revolving around, for instance, designing future hardware around sustainability.
Johnny Hou, CEO of gaming PC manufacturer NZXT, agrees. “Talking about Web3 and the metaverse is like, I don’t know, 20 years ago or 15 years ago when people were talking about MMOs. […] It’s a feature, and just because you made a MMO doesn’t mean it makes it a good MMO,” says Hou. “Web3 has this whole blockchain element behind it, and crypto is very exciting, and [there are] a lot of potential opportunities to make money. But from the perspective of a gamer, it just goes back to content.”
Hou defines that content as the next generation of games over the next 10 years. Quake, for instance, led to the WASD gaming configuration now used by PC players everywhere. The popularity of MOBA games, the likes of DOTA and League of Legends, has influenced streaming culture. Then there is the battle royale genre popularized by DayZ, PUBG, and Fortnite, the latter inspiring conversations about what it means to build a modern-day metaverse. Whatever platforms or hardware will come after will naturally be created to support the next big thing in games. “What’s next after MOBA? Is that battle royale?” Hou asks. “[Even] battle royale is really played out now. MOBA is obviously here but, like, what’s next? What’s the next innovation when it comes to gameplay?”
What this means is that …….